Provisional figure shows a sale of approx 1 billion Dollars (3938 cr), so how did our market end up with marginal losses when last week half the above sale made them tank 10% & more... unlike last few days even futures side they were net sellers of 300 cr net in stock & nifty futures together, only solace is our mutual funds about 2160 cr. volatile times indeed, well a break of today's bottom will point to the inevitable test of bottom, which will finally satisfy all Technical analysts... a test of the falling trendline point to 4850 region.
Since last 2 days the index heavies (RIL, ONGC, NTPC) have been nicely manipulating the indexes, during the upmove there was no sign of -ve news & now in the downmove no sign of +ve news, how the operators manipulate the media is amazing, even look at the company result in these recent times how so many companies come with lower than expected results only during correction & crashes. People are made to assume the best during upmoves & worst during the downmoves, upside figures of 25 to 30K were thrown easily & now 12/14K are doing the rounds.
My personal stratergy would be to buy 20/25% on every 5% downmove if finance permits, but do your own math & measure your own risk appetite, so Bon Appetite.
Foot Note: A billion dollar sale & the rupee ends stronger ??? I wonder if its not one of the infamous wrong figures, to create panic. Also Citibank subprime problems hit Mumbai, closes 8 ATMs to cut costs ;)
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Mid Noon Post FED
Well Monday's low of 5071 still protected by the bulls, after initial weakness Nifty has recovered has climbed back above the trendline showed yesterday, the 5150 has now shifted to 5185 which needs to be sustained today.
Asian markets mixed after fed but none showing major weakness, seems all in their process of making temp bottoms.
Damned if you do damned if you don't is the situation of USA, FED cut 50 basis points was supposed to be making the bulls happy, but now they think if fed is ready to cut so aggressively there must be something really wrong.
Asian markets mixed after fed but none showing major weakness, seems all in their process of making temp bottoms.
Damned if you do damned if you don't is the situation of USA, FED cut 50 basis points was supposed to be making the bulls happy, but now they think if fed is ready to cut so aggressively there must be something really wrong.
50 basis point cut, yipee
US FED announces a 50 basis point cut, Gimme my IT Rally please, its overdue.... so the last minute heavy buying of Nifty futures was informed sources or gamblers ???? Dow up 97 points as of now, but its already rallied long way from bottom, so sell on news attitude ? maybe still 1:30 hours to go for the Dow to do its jig, may it rise in peace.
Also please note FII's today may have sold in cash 911 crs. but bought more than 1200 crs. of Nifty & Stock futures, same is the case in last few days, sell in cash but buying more in futures, so must be covering their shorts.
Update: Dow ended down -37 (Remember Dow rallied more than 1000 points from its lows) & Asian market not too impressed by the cut, lets see what our markets do especially today being settlement day. Break of 5150 may test 4850/4900 levels.
Also please note FII's today may have sold in cash 911 crs. but bought more than 1200 crs. of Nifty & Stock futures, same is the case in last few days, sell in cash but buying more in futures, so must be covering their shorts.
Update: Dow ended down -37 (Remember Dow rallied more than 1000 points from its lows) & Asian market not too impressed by the cut, lets see what our markets do especially today being settlement day. Break of 5150 may test 4850/4900 levels.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Living on the Edge...
Nifty is living on the edge, waiting for the Fed biting its fingernails threatening to break down but still not letting go the bullish scene, the lower trendline is still intact but only just in the hourly chart above. A big move on either side will be coming in next 2 days.... but last 3/5 minutes of trade saw heavy buying in futures of Nifty Jan & Feb., so whether it was pofit booking of shorts or an indication is to be seen tomorrow.
5150 should hold...
If 5150 on Nifty holds & 5250 is breached on upside, expect one way move to 5700/5800, but 5150 should not be breached... right now Nifty is 5195.
Everyone was expecting a test of the bottom made, but Nifty has other plans it seems, It gave a sideways move in the range making an ascending triangle pattern, lets see if it works out...
But if 5150 is breached we can be almost sure there will be no 50 basis point cut & bottom testing is in the cards...
Everyone was expecting a test of the bottom made, but Nifty has other plans it seems, It gave a sideways move in the range making an ascending triangle pattern, lets see if it works out...
But if 5150 is breached we can be almost sure there will be no 50 basis point cut & bottom testing is in the cards...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Divergence in Nifty sensex
Well like mentioned earlier 5400 level for nifty was crucial for it to continue the higher top higher bottoms formation, which dint & all were very disappointed concluding range-boundness. But wait a minute, look at Sensex, it coolly broke the Friday highs of 18406 & made a new high today of 18491. So our dear sensex has continued its bullish outlook from the bottom made, after a dip Nifty will join the party, as long as 17070 on sensex & 4995 on nifty are not broken.
Ok off the topic another thing annoying I find companies showing good profit, but somehow due to some operator manipulated analysis they show how the profit is below the expected profit & tank the stock, whereas Companies shown having losses lower than expected are made to hit the roof, come on after all does that make sense ? after all the end result is profits get thrashed & loss welcomed...
Ok off the topic another thing annoying I find companies showing good profit, but somehow due to some operator manipulated analysis they show how the profit is below the expected profit & tank the stock, whereas Companies shown having losses lower than expected are made to hit the roof, come on after all does that make sense ? after all the end result is profits get thrashed & loss welcomed...
Range Bound Markets
Till we break above 5400 Nifty we will remain range bound, 5400 being the Friday top, I believe we will breakout in next 48 hours and can buy some cheap feb call options, let media do their fancy word twisting & create hopes & then create scares, we wont buy their cheap talkers... but till the time we don't break out of 5400 no risky trades either side should be done, if we break out 5700 will immediately follow.
Well RBI gave nothing but then dint take anything either, so with SBI rights on status quo on...
On the funny side my blog got an hit from google search & guess what someone had searched for "loosing weight" so our market loosing weight is attracting lot of weight loss groups attention.
Well RBI gave nothing but then dint take anything either, so with SBI rights on status quo on...
On the funny side my blog got an hit from google search & guess what someone had searched for "loosing weight" so our market loosing weight is attracting lot of weight loss groups attention.
Banks resilient ?
I hear everyone singing banks are resilient in this correction & each & every analyst coming on media singing the Banks resiliency song, but remember SBI rights is on, like how few days back it was Power on, now its banks on & Govt. is riding on this one... Today our credit policy, I believe some carrot will be given to keep the banks alive till the right issue.
Also as the power issue nears listing we see how the REL (Reliance Energy) stock coming back to life.
Also as the power issue nears listing we see how the REL (Reliance Energy) stock coming back to life.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Markets stabilizing ...
The market are stabilizing and making higher tops & higher bottoms: 4448 - 5203, 4995 - 5399, 5071 - ..... Now if we break Friday's high of 5399 we confirm the pattern. So don't believe / listen to those media channels proclaiming doom & dust.... I doubt their intentions are to help us retailers... rather they are for the big guys & against us meager mortals, so if you don't believe me atleast be very careful with your shorts.
Friday, January 25, 2008
20,000 in next week ?
There's strong possibility that we could retrace the entire fall in the fall period it took to fall, i.e. 8 trading sessions. The Sensex weekly chart formed a hammer in the weekly chart which signifies a reversal pattern (Please note that the hammer can be white or black. As always, it is strongly recommended that with either candle, the short-term trader should wait for the next Candle for a confirmation candlestick that the share price is reversing direction), so I consider this weeks low as a bottom but need confirmation, also weekly chart has taken support at 50 RSI.
If it happens the retail public will be dumbstruck just waiting to enter in pullbacks....On the other hand any big correction has taken atleast 4 weeks to finish, looking at 26th may 2006 week a similar hammer was formed but correction continued 2 more weeks... so we should be on guard if in buy position have close stop losses.
something going on in IT, I expect some news to trigger a rally.
Also for a change today's provision figures show FII have stopped the selling & were net buyer both in cash & F&O.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Reliance IPO's bad luck ?
Is it a coincidence / bad luck / planned move that everytime a Reliance IPO comes market crashes.
11.05.06 Reliance Petroleum (RPL) was listed which coincidently was the day the May 06 crash began, now 15.01.08 after the Ipo of Reliance power got fully subscribed, the crash began...
Very obvious that along with the operators the Ambani's held the market, till there IPO...
I am not saying that world market had nothing to do with it, but we corrected along with world in feb 07 & July 07, but the magnitude became excessive of the correction cause they were held on artificially for some time...
On the lighter side maybe the world sends all its funds to the ipo thus causing the crash...
11.05.06 Reliance Petroleum (RPL) was listed which coincidently was the day the May 06 crash began, now 15.01.08 after the Ipo of Reliance power got fully subscribed, the crash began...
Very obvious that along with the operators the Ambani's held the market, till there IPO...
I am not saying that world market had nothing to do with it, but we corrected along with world in feb 07 & July 07, but the magnitude became excessive of the correction cause they were held on artificially for some time...
On the lighter side maybe the world sends all its funds to the ipo thus causing the crash...
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Sensex looses 5874 points
Sensex lost 5874 points from the top of 21206 made on 10.01.08 to 15332 today in just 8 trading sessions, in the History of Indian market this is a 1st, where is our dear finance minister who was worried of 1000 points rise in 10/15 days, today he is saying Indian economy is on track & Investors need not panic ???
Remember there are two gaps made on the downside which need to be filled sooner or later, 1st one is on 18930 & 2nd on 20203, the 1st gap will coincide with the fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% at 18980... So cheer up Bulls.
So they say FII's are selling causing the crash lets review last 2 days: yesterday FII sold 3300cr but M.funds mopped upto 3400crs still we landed deep in red, today FII sold 4265 cr in cash & M.funds bought 2778 crs but look at the Futures figures: FII today bought around 2825 cr nifty futures & around 5000 cr in stock futures, so hello, the blame game is not worth talking about.
Remember there are two gaps made on the downside which need to be filled sooner or later, 1st one is on 18930 & 2nd on 20203, the 1st gap will coincide with the fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% at 18980... So cheer up Bulls.
So they say FII's are selling causing the crash lets review last 2 days: yesterday FII sold 3300cr but M.funds mopped upto 3400crs still we landed deep in red, today FII sold 4265 cr in cash & M.funds bought 2778 crs but look at the Futures figures: FII today bought around 2825 cr nifty futures & around 5000 cr in stock futures, so hello, the blame game is not worth talking about.
FED is fed up....
The USA FED is fed up with the constant pressure of the market which has arm twisted them to cut rates.
Fed cuts rate to 3.5% in 1st emergency session since 2001: The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate in an emergency move for the first time since 2001 by 75 basis points after stock markets tumbled from Hong Kong to London and the U.S. economy showed increasing signs that it's headed into a recession.
Fed cuts rate to 3.5% in 1st emergency session since 2001: The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate in an emergency move for the first time since 2001 by 75 basis points after stock markets tumbled from Hong Kong to London and the U.S. economy showed increasing signs that it's headed into a recession.
+ve Divergences...
There are +ve divergences in the hourly charts, any dips now or tomorrow can be used to buy...
today seemed a day when operators dint have anything to sell so opened market in lower circuit & started covering their shorts from there on.... worst seems to be over we completed 30% correction same as last MAy 06, there maybe downsides due to global markets but recovery is on its way, with the Dow futures down 550+ point since y'day today dow will see some major downside I guess but seems the world market have already given their respects to that, infact Europe market are in +ve territory today, though maybe just a bounce from oversold levels, Thank you LIC... I promise I will buy more of your policies...
today seemed a day when operators dint have anything to sell so opened market in lower circuit & started covering their shorts from there on.... worst seems to be over we completed 30% correction same as last MAy 06, there maybe downsides due to global markets but recovery is on its way, with the Dow futures down 550+ point since y'day today dow will see some major downside I guess but seems the world market have already given their respects to that, infact Europe market are in +ve territory today, though maybe just a bounce from oversold levels, Thank you LIC... I promise I will buy more of your policies...
LIC Being paged, LIC where art thou...
Urgent call to LIC for buying in Indian markets & mainly for selling more mediclaim & insurance policies to Indian traders....
Yesterday it took 5.5 cr nifty trading to go 10% & today 10 lak trading of nifty futures to hit 10% circuit, manipulation total, no other word for it, look at the stock selection which hit 18/20 % downside, all major index stocks.
We are truly resilient, we don't need FII selling to bring down our markets, only our operator games are enough.
Yesterday it took 5.5 cr nifty trading to go 10% & today 10 lak trading of nifty futures to hit 10% circuit, manipulation total, no other word for it, look at the stock selection which hit 18/20 % downside, all major index stocks.
We are truly resilient, we don't need FII selling to bring down our markets, only our operator games are enough.
World markets continue to crash
All Asian market down between 4 to 6.5 % today morning, any buying should be done only after some stability in the world markets, as they say don't catch a falling knife.
Mostly all markets have reached their Sept 07 levels or below, so we would need to be around 4500 nifty levels to be at par.
Mostly all markets have reached their Sept 07 levels or below, so we would need to be around 4500 nifty levels to be at par.
Monday, January 21, 2008
20,200 target....
Those stuck in their positions or get to buy in this fall should aim for sensex target 20,200. The gap there will be filled sooner or later thus atleast giving a bounce till there which means around 2600 point from present close of 17605.
So if markets gap down tomorrow, it might be worthwhile to buy delivery basis & forget them, till 20,200.
IT stocks showing accumulation & also textile stocks & Auto Machinery sector, maybe some sops in the budget for them, personally am picking those.
So if markets gap down tomorrow, it might be worthwhile to buy delivery basis & forget them, till 20,200.
IT stocks showing accumulation & also textile stocks & Auto Machinery sector, maybe some sops in the budget for them, personally am picking those.
5100 achieved as predicted in Dec.
Well target of 5100 for nifty achieved & broken... atleast it held on closing basis. Pain not over yet, a bounce though should happen any time, testing 4650 the previous top may be possible, all depends on the world market though...
Strange how the indexes were not allowed to hit circuit of 10% before 14:30 & fell through afterward, seems like someone purposely did that because after 14:30 the circuits go to 15%.
Another thing, FII sold 3300cr in cash & M.funds bought 3400cr, FII's were sellers in Nifty but bought equivalent amounts in stocks futures, so who sold is a mystery .
Strange how the indexes were not allowed to hit circuit of 10% before 14:30 & fell through afterward, seems like someone purposely did that because after 14:30 the circuits go to 15%.
Another thing, FII sold 3300cr in cash & M.funds bought 3400cr, FII's were sellers in Nifty but bought equivalent amounts in stocks futures, so who sold is a mystery .
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Some posts carried forward from MMB Blog...
Following are my post on MMB Blog (BearCartel)
Resons for bearishness as posted earlier: Posted by: BearCartel on (13-Dec-07 19:46 ) I feel a significant correction is around the corner too many coincidences with last May... Metals crashed significantly, World markets toppish, though possibility of Dow making an inverted Head & shoulder, Usually I follow London FTSE because if you check charts any significant correction worldwide will begin from FTSE & spread later everywhere, Also like last may Oil at all time high & now falling, ACC & satyam which are operators favorite are not moving & slowly going downwards... MTNL & pharma usually the last to move in a rally have started moving, many other factors which I cant remember now have made me come to selling off... so I think a significant correction is due.
one more thing if you notice before any big correction there comes 2 wave of corrections like we fell from 12K to 11K 2 times & then topped at 12671 now we fell from 19k to 17k & 20k to 18K though it was different cause we fell twice this time from 20k so I got a bit confused... thats a signal for me to sell out, don't know what its called maybe significant to Elliot theory but I know zilch about Elliot so wont know...
reasons for future bullishness as a layman viewing general operator traits:
late Jan / early feb few mega issues in the pipeline like REL power / SBI blah blah / Rumour of RIL Retail possible & few more & other reason a handsome no. of SOP would be ther in budget & rumour of Tax cuts etc since elections around the corner... Usually the IPOs & the budget rally will coincide so as stated above I have sold out & will re-enter in Mid Jan, so caution is highly advice, if the world markets permit we should test 5880 tomorrow, after that looks bearish, your views comments welcome...
26.12.07: Well Mutual Funds Quarterly NAV last day 31.12.07 & Expiry on 27.12.07, seldom are the market allowed to fall under above circumstances.... so any downside will be in Jan.... The Weekly charts of Nifty & RIL showing heavy -ve divergence, so is the MACD, Caution is advised, target may come & go...Rarely has the Macd slow line cut above the fast line in the weekly charts & got away without a significant correction, I do expect 5100/5150 within next month
Govt allows this & that , blah blah to invest in the Stock market, hmm...sounds very familiar, old players may have heard this line several times before, usually I believe its for the retail investors to believe that lot of money is on its way so no worries, but experienced guys know, its a signal of incoming...
03.01.07: As expected in the reasons for bullishness given above... any correction due is postponed to after the mega REL Power IPO, operators at their best... Enjoy till IPO ends...
16.1.08: Well Nifty Futures had a gap at 5830 which got beautifully covered today, Seeing the Overall bearish mood & still a few big time issues lined up am bullish on the market, think till budget may carry on... Seeing the shorts being built up here & in the dow, looks like the fed is gonna +vely surprise....
17.1.08: THe trend line from Oct till now has been breached on the lower side, looks like the bearish scenario which I explained will after all play out, too bad though it proves technicals work more than other factors... wish I had listened to its logic, well never too late. Though if there's a immediate upside still there's a slim chance, another thing a gap in sensex at 20,200 is made looks like a bearish breakout, but sooner or later it will be covered....
18.1.08: Shorters beware of hugh pullbacks, wolfe wave seems active target 5450...
Resons for bearishness as posted earlier: Posted by: BearCartel on (13-Dec-07 19:46 ) I feel a significant correction is around the corner too many coincidences with last May... Metals crashed significantly, World markets toppish, though possibility of Dow making an inverted Head & shoulder, Usually I follow London FTSE because if you check charts any significant correction worldwide will begin from FTSE & spread later everywhere, Also like last may Oil at all time high & now falling, ACC & satyam which are operators favorite are not moving & slowly going downwards... MTNL & pharma usually the last to move in a rally have started moving, many other factors which I cant remember now have made me come to selling off... so I think a significant correction is due.
one more thing if you notice before any big correction there comes 2 wave of corrections like we fell from 12K to 11K 2 times & then topped at 12671 now we fell from 19k to 17k & 20k to 18K though it was different cause we fell twice this time from 20k so I got a bit confused... thats a signal for me to sell out, don't know what its called maybe significant to Elliot theory but I know zilch about Elliot so wont know...
reasons for future bullishness as a layman viewing general operator traits:
late Jan / early feb few mega issues in the pipeline like REL power / SBI blah blah / Rumour of RIL Retail possible & few more & other reason a handsome no. of SOP would be ther in budget & rumour of Tax cuts etc since elections around the corner... Usually the IPOs & the budget rally will coincide so as stated above I have sold out & will re-enter in Mid Jan, so caution is highly advice, if the world markets permit we should test 5880 tomorrow, after that looks bearish, your views comments welcome...
26.12.07: Well Mutual Funds Quarterly NAV last day 31.12.07 & Expiry on 27.12.07, seldom are the market allowed to fall under above circumstances.... so any downside will be in Jan.... The Weekly charts of Nifty & RIL showing heavy -ve divergence, so is the MACD, Caution is advised, target may come & go...Rarely has the Macd slow line cut above the fast line in the weekly charts & got away without a significant correction, I do expect 5100/5150 within next month
Govt allows this & that , blah blah to invest in the Stock market, hmm...sounds very familiar, old players may have heard this line several times before, usually I believe its for the retail investors to believe that lot of money is on its way so no worries, but experienced guys know, its a signal of incoming...
03.01.07: As expected in the reasons for bullishness given above... any correction due is postponed to after the mega REL Power IPO, operators at their best... Enjoy till IPO ends...
16.1.08: Well Nifty Futures had a gap at 5830 which got beautifully covered today, Seeing the Overall bearish mood & still a few big time issues lined up am bullish on the market, think till budget may carry on... Seeing the shorts being built up here & in the dow, looks like the fed is gonna +vely surprise....
17.1.08: THe trend line from Oct till now has been breached on the lower side, looks like the bearish scenario which I explained will after all play out, too bad though it proves technicals work more than other factors... wish I had listened to its logic, well never too late. Though if there's a immediate upside still there's a slim chance, another thing a gap in sensex at 20,200 is made looks like a bearish breakout, but sooner or later it will be covered....
18.1.08: Shorters beware of hugh pullbacks, wolfe wave seems active target 5450...
1st post - Say hello to God...
Jai Shri Krishna
Ohm Shri Ganeshaay Namah
Regards,
Baron
Show Me The Money ®
Ohm Shri Ganeshaay Namah
Regards,
Baron
Show Me The Money ®
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