New forum opened for discussion of Indian Stock markets, worth a check:
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Friday, March 13, 2009
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Its alive !
Its alive ! yup nifty is still alive as seen in the Weekly Futures charts Trendline was tested this week & bounced... but for genuine bullishness nifty futures needs to close above atleast 3020/3040 levels initially, I would just consider this 100 points as a bounce from oversold levels & an attempt to test the broken trendline, as after all this is a bear market...
As per the last post in March 08 nifty broke the critical levels & then we know what happened but now we seems to be stuck in a broad range of 2500 to 3200 & either side break will be big.
Happy Makar Sankranti to all.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Caution
We have had a good pull back & now 4913 level is crucial, if we break we may see further downside, on the upside a break above 5300 will see the rally continue, but caution & strict stop loss on long at this moment... within next 2 days we should atleast go above 5080 to revive the momentum.
Following was written on Feb 4, 2008: "So let's foresee a typical conversation in time to come: "Hey look at IT rise, I always knew we should have bought Software stocks" by that time usual case maybe that software rally may be peaking..."
Now everybody is advising to buy IT stocks, where were they when Infosys was 1200/1400 ?
Following was written on Feb 4, 2008: "So let's foresee a typical conversation in time to come: "Hey look at IT rise, I always knew we should have bought Software stocks" by that time usual case maybe that software rally may be peaking..."
Now everybody is advising to buy IT stocks, where were they when Infosys was 1200/1400 ?
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Red Alert - We have a breach
IMHO Sensex weekly chart has given breech in the long term trendline on closing basis, which should next week test 16250 & if does not crossover upside, its adios amigos....
Sensex has recently been moving 1 step in advance of nifty as on wed sensex had already broken through the feb lows which nifty did on friday...
Although provisional figures show Fii's were net buyers both in cash & futures, so finally is the retail mob panicking ?
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Bottom Testing on the cards...
Well The Nifty might not have broken through 4800 which was the February lows, but Sensex already have shown the trend & broken it... looks like 4450/4500 is on the cards to test the January panic bottoms. though we are getting over sold on hourly charts, i think a bottom will be made somewhere in the next few days. But we are inches away from the long term bull market trend line & chances of violation are rising, like I said the FM has laid the seeds of a bear market. We want the BJP back please.
Besides the point, Where is the stock market lobby ? The commodities lobby is marching left / right to remove the newly imposed STT our fat brokers lobby is just sitting & smiling at the FM saying Good budget on TV & then cursing him off TV. Are they so scared of the FM or are they hand in hand with him ??? The FM who was creating a furore over few 1000 points rise & banning this & controlling that, is now just smiling & saying its the world markets ???? Well was'nt the rise also in tune with world markets ???? Or is he biased to certain sector of market player ???? Did he not check the we are the biggest looser worldwide in the last 3 consecutive days ??? Wake FM the Voters smell a foul.
Besides the point, Where is the stock market lobby ? The commodities lobby is marching left / right to remove the newly imposed STT our fat brokers lobby is just sitting & smiling at the FM saying Good budget on TV & then cursing him off TV. Are they so scared of the FM or are they hand in hand with him ??? The FM who was creating a furore over few 1000 points rise & banning this & controlling that, is now just smiling & saying its the world markets ???? Well was'nt the rise also in tune with world markets ???? Or is he biased to certain sector of market player ???? Did he not check the we are the biggest looser worldwide in the last 3 consecutive days ??? Wake FM the Voters smell a foul.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Robin Hood Budget
Here are some highlights on the Indian budget:
• For income upto Rs 1,50,000 tax liability will be nil, between Rs 1,50,000 and Rs 3,00,000 tax liability will be 10% , from 3 lakh to 5 lakh tax liability will be 20%, from 5 lakh upwards it will be 30%
• No change in surcharge of corporate tax
• 5 year tax holiday for hospitals especially in tier 2 and tier 3 cities
• Central sales tax cut from 3% to 2%
• Govt withdraws banking transaction tax
• Levy on STT only on option premiums
• Commodities transaction tax introduced like STT
• Short term capital gains to be taxed at 15% instead of the previous 10%
• STT Will be treated as an expense rather than a Tax (its worst than the Short term capital gain increase to 15% for traders)
• 5 year tax holiday to 2,3& 4 star hotels in UNESCO declared heritage site areas
• Dividend of subsidiary company will be exempt from DDT
• Duty on 2 wheelers reduced from 16 to 12%
• Excise on small cars reduced to 14%
• Excise on pharma goods slashed to 14%
• Reduce duties on steel melting scrap, aluminum scrap
• Total estimate of Farmer loans being waived is Rs. 60,000 Cr.
All in all an OK to bad budget (ok for common man & bad for stock market man), unless if you are a farmer then good for you, but the interesting thing will be to see how the money will be allocated to the Farmer loan waiver scheme cause that matter has been alluded & not even accounted for in the budget, ofcourse an easy way should be diluting stake in a few state owned companies, rather than even thinking of any further tax levy. Also the tinkering with stock markets was uncalled for & not needed after a crash of this proportion, but since it will affect the FII's in no way, the retail suffering is ignored & not that it will generate any substantial revenues for the govt. Well atleast on the bright side the long term capital gain was left untouched. So will the short term players run to book profits before before 31st March ? Which profits, all short term profit gone with the crash. So the taxes (direct & indirect) continues & so does the Robin hood budget, seems the Govt is more happy pleasing the Left rather than the public, the corporate, the money making people, hope they don't kill the goose giving the golden egg too much.
So still no bail out for the bulls with the world markets weak & budget aggravating our weakness, seems the FM has laid out seeds for a future Bear Market.
Technically we remain as is, same as posted in the "Moment of truth" below.
• For income upto Rs 1,50,000 tax liability will be nil, between Rs 1,50,000 and Rs 3,00,000 tax liability will be 10% , from 3 lakh to 5 lakh tax liability will be 20%, from 5 lakh upwards it will be 30%
• No change in surcharge of corporate tax
• 5 year tax holiday for hospitals especially in tier 2 and tier 3 cities
• Central sales tax cut from 3% to 2%
• Govt withdraws banking transaction tax
• Levy on STT only on option premiums
• Commodities transaction tax introduced like STT
• Short term capital gains to be taxed at 15% instead of the previous 10%
• STT Will be treated as an expense rather than a Tax (its worst than the Short term capital gain increase to 15% for traders)
• 5 year tax holiday to 2,3& 4 star hotels in UNESCO declared heritage site areas
• Dividend of subsidiary company will be exempt from DDT
• Duty on 2 wheelers reduced from 16 to 12%
• Excise on small cars reduced to 14%
• Excise on pharma goods slashed to 14%
• Reduce duties on steel melting scrap, aluminum scrap
• Total estimate of Farmer loans being waived is Rs. 60,000 Cr.
All in all an OK to bad budget (ok for common man & bad for stock market man), unless if you are a farmer then good for you, but the interesting thing will be to see how the money will be allocated to the Farmer loan waiver scheme cause that matter has been alluded & not even accounted for in the budget, ofcourse an easy way should be diluting stake in a few state owned companies, rather than even thinking of any further tax levy. Also the tinkering with stock markets was uncalled for & not needed after a crash of this proportion, but since it will affect the FII's in no way, the retail suffering is ignored & not that it will generate any substantial revenues for the govt. Well atleast on the bright side the long term capital gain was left untouched. So will the short term players run to book profits before before 31st March ? Which profits, all short term profit gone with the crash. So the taxes (direct & indirect) continues & so does the Robin hood budget, seems the Govt is more happy pleasing the Left rather than the public, the corporate, the money making people, hope they don't kill the goose giving the golden egg too much.
So still no bail out for the bulls with the world markets weak & budget aggravating our weakness, seems the FM has laid out seeds for a future Bear Market.
Technically we remain as is, same as posted in the "Moment of truth" below.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Moment of Truth...
Holding of 5100/5150 is important, for an immediate rally, if we break downside is pending... All world markets are in sync & having very similar pattern, waiting for some major event I guess (dont tell me its for the Indian budget, lol). People say all Asian markets were good, why we went down or something similar but if we observe all market are having a broader same moment, If we rise more on a particular day we fall more & if we dont rise like other markets we fall less, all moves are compensated. A break above 5545 is required to sooth all bull nerves. Till then we are indecisive.
A few reasons why I think 4900 / 5000 Nifty will be tested are that We need to test the falling trend line from the top, which is around those levels & also the 200 DMA + 1 down wave is pending (which seems to have begun), Also the gap may be covered at those levels which we made in this upmove, so 3 in 1 reasons. Now in this down leg if we dont break 4800, then we surely have the POWER on, but if we do, bottom is far away.
My views is the way we are making gaps on the falls, we would have a very fast upmove to 5700 / 6000 levels, but please protect your finances first, "To run away & fight another day is better than To die fighting"
A few reasons why I think 4900 / 5000 Nifty will be tested are that We need to test the falling trend line from the top, which is around those levels & also the 200 DMA + 1 down wave is pending (which seems to have begun), Also the gap may be covered at those levels which we made in this upmove, so 3 in 1 reasons. Now in this down leg if we dont break 4800, then we surely have the POWER on, but if we do, bottom is far away.
My views is the way we are making gaps on the falls, we would have a very fast upmove to 5700 / 6000 levels, but please protect your finances first, "To run away & fight another day is better than To die fighting"
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