Indian Stock Market Technical Analysis + Post hoc, ergo propter hoc

Is Corruption in Indians Genes?

2011-09-09T12:11:00.001+05:30

Something to think about .... with due respect to all ...

Indians are Hobbesian (culture of self interest)

Corruption in India is a cultural aspect.
Indians seem to think nothing peculiar about corruption .
It is everywhere.

Indians tolerate corrupt individuals rather than correct them.

No race can be congenitally corrupt.
But can a race be corrupted by its culture?

To know why Indians are corrupt ,
look at their patterns and practices ..

First:

Religion is transactional in India.
Indians give God cash and anticipate an out-of-turn reward.
Such a plea acknowledges that favours are needed for the undeserving.

In the world outside the temple walls,
such a transaction is named- “bribe”.

A wealthy Indian gives not cash to temples,
but gold crowns and such baubles.

His gifts can not feed the poor. His pay-off is for God.
He thinks it will be wasted if it goes to a needy man.

In June 2009, The Hindu published a report of Karnataka minister
G. Janardhan Reddy gifting a crown of gold and diamonds worth
Rs 45 crore to Tirupati.

India’s temples collect so much that
they don't know what to do with it.
Billions are gathering dust in temple vaults.

When Europeans came to India they built schools.
When Indians go to Europe & USA, they build temples.

Indians believe that if God accepts money for his favours,
then nothing is wrong in doing the same thing.
This is why Indians are so easily corruptible.

Indian culture accommodates such transactions morally.
There is no real stigma. An utterly corrupt Jaya Lalita can
make a comeback, just unthinkable in the West.

Second -

Indian moral ambiguity towards corruption is visible in its history.
Indian history tells of the capture of cities and kingdoms after guards
were paid off to open the gates, and commanders paid off to surrender.

This is unique to India.

Indians' corrupt nature has meant limited warfare on the subcontinent.
It is striking how little Indians have actually fought compared to
ancient Greece and modern Europe.

The Turks’ battles with Nadir Shah were vicious and fought to the finish.

In India fighting wasn't needed, bribing was enough to see off armies.

Any invader willing to spend cash could brush aside India’s kings,
no matter how many tens of thousands soldiers were in their infantry.

Little resistance was given by the Indians at the “Battle” of Plassey.
Clive paid off Mir Jaffar and all of Bengal folded to an army of 3,000.

There was always a financial exchange to taking Indian forts.
Golconda was captured in 1687 after the secret back door was left open.

Mughals vanquished Marathas and Rajputs with nothing but bribes.

The Raja of Srinagar gave up Dara Shikoh’s son Sulaiman to
Aurangzeb after receiving a bribe.

There are many cases where Indians participated
on a large scale in treason due to bribery.

Question is: Why Indians have a transactional culture while
other 'civilized' nations don't?

Third -

Indians do not believe in the theory that they all can rise
if each of them behaves morally, because that is not
the message of their faith.

Their caste system separates them.
They don't believe that all men are equal.
This resulted in their division and migration to other religions ...

Many Hindus started their own faith like Sikh, Jain, Buddha
and many converted to Christianity and Islam.

The result is that Indians don't trust one another ..

There are no Indians in India ,there are
Hindus ,Christians, Muslims and what not.

Indians forget that 400 years ago they all belonged to one faith.

This division evolved an unhealthy culture.
The inequality has resulted in a corrupt society,

In India every one is thus against everyone else,
except God and even he must be bribed.

2011-08-25T13:44:00.002+05:30

I have a conspiracy theory (since few months) :hehe:

I believe congress wont last long, at the most till 2012 mid... Some powerful person or persons is behind congress. Its like the fight between Dhirubhai & I think wadia... how congress was smacked...

constant attacks consistently are well played, we cannot believe these one after another attacks on their scams coming to public... never in all these decades has media had the guts to do this unless a strong hand is playing them. I think when MMS said foreign hand invloved in overthrowing congress he was saying the truth... all this is slowing leading to a no confidence motion when the Iron gets red hot.... aage aage dekho hota hai kya...

within few months Team Anna shud form a nationwide party... that wud be the right thing to do... & thus the momentum will keep going... I dont know how gud wud that be since I read many times Anna is got a dictatorial nature :pray

India is on crossroads... Jai Jawaan Jai Kisaan, Gimme Blood I promise you freedom...

2011-04-19T09:50:00.001+05:30

200 dma - 5729

sustaining below 5700 for a couple of days & its game set & match bears...

for the 1st time after may/june 09, 100 & 50 dma is below 200 dma... (last time it went below was in april/may 08)

2010-09-06T18:18:00.005+05:30

Back after a long time... & my last post when nifty was 3000 (Its alive) to 5600, what a journey, spectacular. I believe this is the final lap before a significant correction steps in... ofcourse the move has been dead after the initial jump as since in last october (2009) we touched 4998 & in the last year Nifty has been dilly dallying with a 10% move up in 11 months.... not the kind of bull market we were looking for, is it ?

Most of the cats & dogs stocks have been moving since a couple of months & Index has been smartly manipulated with rotation of stocks & major thanks to the Oil companies. Ofcourse SBI with interest rates rising is rising alongwith.

Now after todays move of approx 100 points Nifty, we are standing at cross roads again, sustaining above 5580 is important & a daily close below 5550 will be not good for the bulls.

Below is the daily chart of Nifty, saying it all:

Ofcourse September is the Mutual funds Half yearly NAV so I doubt if the will let the market slip, rather they are prone to holding the markets as we witnessed in the last few days...

on the other hand option data suggests no further big upside this month...

All the Best to your trades.

New Forum...

2009-03-13T21:19:00.004+05:30

New forum opened for discussion of Indian Stock markets, worth a check:

IndiTraders.com

Its alive !

2009-01-14T15:51:00.006+05:30

Its alive ! yup nifty is still alive as seen in the Weekly Futures charts Trendline was tested this week & bounced... but for genuine bullishness nifty futures needs to close above atleast 3020/3040 levels initially, I would just consider this 100 points as a bounce from oversold levels & an attempt to test the broken trendline, as after all this is a bear market...

As per the last post in March 08 nifty broke the critical levels & then we know what happened but now we seems to be stuck in a broad range of 2500 to 3200 & either side break will be big.

Happy Makar Sankranti to all.

Caution

2008-05-14T09:10:00.005+05:30

We have had a good pull back & now 4913 level is crucial, if we break we may see further downside, on the upside a break above 5300 will see the rally continue, but caution & strict stop loss on long at this moment... within next 2 days we should atleast go above 5080 to revive the momentum.

Following was written on Feb 4, 2008: "So let's foresee a typical conversation in time to come: "Hey look at IT rise, I always knew we should have bought Software stocks" by that time usual case maybe that software rally may be peaking..."

Now everybody is advising to buy IT stocks, where were they when Infosys was 1200/1400 ?

Red Alert - We have a breach

2008-03-08T13:10:00.002+05:30

IMHO Sensex weekly chart has given breech in the long term trendline on closing basis, which should next week test 16250 & if does not crossover upside, its adios amigos....

Sensex has recently been moving 1 step in advance of nifty as on wed sensex had already broken through the feb lows which nifty did on friday...

Although provisional figures show Fii's were net buyers both in cash & futures, so finally is the retail mob panicking ?

Bottom Testing on the cards...

2008-03-04T18:47:00.003+05:30

Well The Nifty might not have broken through 4800 which was the February lows, but Sensex already have shown the trend & broken it... looks like 4450/4500 is on the cards to test the January panic bottoms. though we are getting over sold on hourly charts, i think a bottom will be made somewhere in the next few days. But we are inches away from the long term bull market trend line & chances of violation are rising, like I said the FM has laid the seeds of a bear market. We want the BJP back please.

Besides the point, Where is the stock market lobby ? The commodities lobby is marching left / right to remove the newly imposed STT our fat brokers lobby is just sitting & smiling at the FM saying Good budget on TV & then cursing him off TV. Are they so scared of the FM or are they hand in hand with him ??? The FM who was creating a furore over few 1000 points rise & banning this & controlling that, is now just smiling & saying its the world markets ???? Well was'nt the rise also in tune with world markets ???? Or is he biased to certain sector of market player ???? Did he not check the we are the biggest looser worldwide in the last 3 consecutive days ??? Wake FM the Voters smell a foul.

Robin Hood Budget

2008-02-29T21:30:00.015+05:30

Here are some highlights on the Indian budget:

• For income upto Rs 1,50,000 tax liability will be nil, between Rs 1,50,000 and Rs 3,00,000 tax liability will be 10% , from 3 lakh to 5 lakh tax liability will be 20%, from 5 lakh upwards it will be 30%
• No change in surcharge of corporate tax
• 5 year tax holiday for hospitals especially in tier 2 and tier 3 cities
• Central sales tax cut from 3% to 2%
• Govt withdraws banking transaction tax
• Levy on STT only on option premiums
• Commodities transaction tax introduced like STT
• Short term capital gains to be taxed at 15% instead of the previous 10%
• STT Will be treated as an expense rather than a Tax (its worst than the Short term capital gain increase to 15% for traders)
• 5 year tax holiday to 2,3& 4 star hotels in UNESCO declared heritage site areas
• Dividend of subsidiary company will be exempt from DDT
• Duty on 2 wheelers reduced from 16 to 12%
• Excise on small cars reduced to 14%
• Excise on pharma goods slashed to 14%
• Reduce duties on steel melting scrap, aluminum scrap
• Total estimate of Farmer loans being waived is Rs. 60,000 Cr.

All in all an OK to bad budget (ok for common man & bad for stock market man), unless if you are a farmer then good for you, but the interesting thing will be to see how the money will be allocated to the Farmer loan waiver scheme cause that matter has been alluded & not even accounted for in the budget, ofcourse an easy way should be diluting stake in a few state owned companies, rather than even thinking of any further tax levy. Also the tinkering with stock markets was uncalled for & not needed after a crash of this proportion, but since it will affect the FII's in no way, the retail suffering is ignored & not that it will generate any substantial revenues for the govt. Well atleast on the bright side the long term capital gain was left untouched. So will the short term players run to book profits before before 31st March ? Which profits, all short term profit gone with the crash. So the taxes (direct & indirect) continues & so does the Robin hood budget, seems the Govt is more happy pleasing the Left rather than the public, the corporate, the money making people, hope they don't kill the goose giving the golden egg too much.

So still no bail out for the bulls with the world markets weak & budget aggravating our weakness, seems the FM has laid out seeds for a future Bear Market.

Technically we remain as is, same as posted in the "Moment of truth" below.

Moment of Truth...

2008-02-20T12:11:00.008+05:30

Holding of 5100/5150 is important, for an immediate rally, if we break downside is pending... All world markets are in sync & having very similar pattern, waiting for some major event I guess (dont tell me its for the Indian budget, lol). People say all Asian markets were good, why we went down or something similar but if we observe all market are having a broader same moment, If we rise more on a particular day we fall more & if we dont rise like other markets we fall less, all moves are compensated. A break above 5545 is required to sooth all bull nerves. Till then we are indecisive.

A few reasons why I think 4900 / 5000 Nifty will be tested are that We need to test the falling trend line from the top, which is around those levels & also the 200 DMA + 1 down wave is pending (which seems to have begun), Also the gap may be covered at those levels which we made in this upmove, so 3 in 1 reasons. Now in this down leg if we dont break 4800, then we surely have the POWER on, but if we do, bottom is far away.

My views is the way we are making gaps on the falls, we would have a very fast upmove to 5700 / 6000 levels, but please protect your finances first, "To run away & fight another day is better than To die fighting"

Orchestra.

2008-02-14T23:46:00.003+05:30

What a nice Orchestrated rise, Since days the positive news was blacked out & only negative news allowed. Can we imagine the coincidence that Reliance finds gas + L&T gets 311 crore order from Qatar + Gail signs MoU with Russian Company + Bhel bags contract from ONGC + Punj Lloyd gets Singapore company contract + Fuel prices hiked (for benefit of Oil companies to support the Index) + NTPC to invest 40 billion $ over next 5 years and some more companies having positive news all on the same day ??? So clear that the Orchestra was planned for today.

Break of 4803 on the downside will break the market till atleast 4448 and break of 5545 on upside will clearly indicate a firm bottom already made with a fresh rally & buy on decline signal. Sustaining above 5150 is essential for the present strength to remain. With the gaps (as mentioned before) present above I have a positive bias as they should be covered sooner or later.

Power on, Lights off...

2008-02-11T11:56:00.000+05:30

Buyers beware stage still continues & bottom fishers & averagers are lost in levels, Well the saga of Reliance issues carries on... As our 5071 gave way so as mentioned 4850 / 4900 would be on the cards. Nifty has made a low of 4870, 4730 possible on break of 4850, levels keep coming bottom illusive. Close above 5000 is important from several aspects & otherwise still pain is on. IT pack is strong, whereas Reliance pack causing the most damage to the indices. The weekly gap in the sensex remain unfilled at 18930. Holding 16000 on the sensex is utmost crutial for the bull market trendline to survive

Media heavily playing down heavily on the Power issue in the entire weekend & creating more panic in the market than necessary, all said is nothing new, where were they when the IPO was announced or when it was being subscribed. Operators are on spree of negative news spread.

Caveat emptor

2008-02-07T18:44:00.000+05:30

As explained yesterday "There has been a pattern since sometime, the day dow tanks we recover by end quite a bit but give up gains the next day, when the World markets are green, so enguard / Caveat emptor" which turned out to be right, We have a more severe fall today, pointwise and percentage wise. Yesterday we were down more than 200 Nifty points & closed better than that.

So the operators use Dow to play with retail psychology ? If Dow dropped 370 points and we recovered from days lows to close around 2.5% down, retail confidence was built, with a follow-up stability the next day, so you say well looks like everything's fine lets buy... & bang suddenly after 2:00 PMish operators offload whatever they bought day before to hold the markets & then panic is created.... same story usually, so I said Buyers Beware...

Well anyways the 5170 have given way & after that the fall accelerated, so now 5071 is crutial, but should remain down under 5071 to be considered not just a dip & go kindof thing, if that happens then doors will be open for sub 5000 levels, around 4850 / 4900.

Range Bound Markets

2008-02-07T14:21:00.000+05:30

Market have been swinging in a range but 5170 should hold, its crutial, otherwise trouble on the horizon, Final stop 5071 after which darkness around, but now one more gap at 5412 Nifty which is open...

Gap down... Power on ???

2008-02-06T10:28:00.000+05:30

Well US recession seems to be on the brink of confirmation, Asia is a sea red. 5250 held & Nifty has a hugh gap down, should be covered, after which we need to observe future direction. So to cover gap Nifty need to achieve, 5412 (yesterdays low) also the much conquered 5400 will now become again a resistance. Sustaining above 5400 from hereon is critical otherewise we may go back to test 5071, though that trendline support lies around 5150 now.

Many stocks completed their 61% retracements in this rise, but still many are yet to complete even 50% & they most probably will & are still showing strength.

Coincidently as the Reliance Power (11.2.08) listing nears, we see the similar behavior to the resilience shown by the markets before the IPO.

There has been a pattern since sometime, the day dow tanks we recover by end quite a bit but give up gains the next day, when the World markets are green, so enguard / Caveat emptor

Dull but Strong...

2008-02-05T18:27:00.000+05:30

As mentioned yesterday that 5400 will be tested, it did the needful, infact, even yesterday a suddenly drop came & tested it. We need to spend some time here, Targets mentioned earlier,remain so.

With a weak Asia & Dow, we did perform better than most, & advance / decline were approx 2:1, which was great.

REPL listing on 11.Feb - Is this resilience for REPL's benefit, maybe so. 1st day of IPO market started crash, blocked all money, made traders sell forcefully & now they give refund after 1000 Nifty point up from the bottom, are you a buyer, well laid trap, come buy if you dare... for new buyer please remember stoploss is too deep at 5070.

Run Sensex Run...

2008-02-04T12:24:00.000+05:30

Good to see the nice rise, since Friday, we have a definite breakout now that 5400 is out of the way, the next retracement level is 5640 & at 5700 is a gap which I have mentioned will get covered, so the setup seems good, but remember the 5400 which took its sweet time to get broken will be tested definitely in the near future... Also gap after 5700 is around 20,200 of Sensex, which too needs covering. The media guys have being yakking about 5500 levels, since the fall, which I personally dont find any interest & significance in.

As I pleaded to the Markets several times, We finally have an Awesome IT rally going on, Go IT Go, forget the $. Sectors have being changed by the operators to throw the public off, so those who were buying the Reliance's & Infra stocks, expecting them to start running on market recovery, they will run too but after enough of retail get frustrated. Balancing act....

So let's foresee a typical conversation in time to come: "Hey look at IT rise, I always knew we should have bought Software stocks" by that time usual case maybe that software rally may be peaking, "Hey lets dump the Infra / Construction stocks & get into Software, its evergreen" follow-up: "Hey whats happening IT is stagnant & coming off & now Infra started running, just my kindof Luck" Now lets not loose patience & stick to IT", After few months the vice versa conversation takes place....

Dow has been running non-stop since the bottom made, We need to make most of the sunshine & our pullbacks should coincide with Dow, since we are nearing overbought zone, but Monday bullish means bulls are on, there is always a significance of an up Monday, if you notice during corrections & crashes Mondays will usually be down days, so we need a bullish Monday.

A Mini Breakout....

2008-02-02T12:37:00.000+05:30

Well Nifty has broken out the intraday falling trendline from 25th Jan onward, following is to be noted:

1) We need a breakout above 5400 for any bullishness, as Nifty is in a range of 5071 to 5400 (yes 5071 has been held as mentioned earlier as 3 attempts failed to break it)

2) As shown in the chart the nifty trend line falling from 25th Jan would logically be tested, if it does so on Monday, it should be around 5200.

3) So preferably we should break above 5400 on Monday opening & then test the 5200 region as we closed on a bullish note & US markets were not bad.

4) On the daily chart we have a macd crossover which is a sign markets are turning bullish.

India - Fastest growth - No / Fastest fall - Yes

2008-02-01T12:40:00.000+05:30

Looking at the world Major Indices, we see all have fallen approx 30/35 % since their tops made. Lets compare them to see where we stand:

Indices Top Month Bottom Date

Dow 14198 Mid Oct 07 11634 Mid Jan 08
FTSE 6754/6751 Jul/Oct 07 5338 Mid Jan 08
HangSang 32000 End Oct 07 21700 Mid Jan 08
Shanghai 6124 Mid Oct 07 4330 Still not bottomed
Nikkei 18000 July 07 12572 Mid Jan 08
Aord 6873 Nov 1st week 07 5222 Mid Jan 08
Sensex 21200 Jan 14 08 15332 Jan 22 08

So on an average Most Indices took around 3 months to fall the 30/35 % & We fell the same fall in 8 trading sessions, Is this fair, Is'nt this height of Manipulation or whatever you call it. It happens only in India... Our Growth rates may not be the highest in the World but our crash / fall are the fastest.

Also note in my 1st post I had mentioned that all major correction begin from London markets, look at the FTSE, which topped in July 2007 & then double topped in Oct 07. Though it dint break the July top so I consider it topping in July.

So where is our dear Finance minister who was taking strong action as the rise of each 1000 points (which was average 10/15 days per 1000) was not good according to him & thus he banned the PN notes & took other actions, now a fall of 6000 points, should he be least bothered about it, if 1000 points rise in 10 days was worth banning PN notes, is'nt 6000 points fall worth unbanning them ???? WHERE ARE YOU MR. PC, your voters want some answers.

i don't expect anything, but the rise got FM's attention & action, the fall deserves atleast acknowledgment of some kind not ignorance... or everything's ok kindof remarks (we have or had our mothers to pat our back & say its ok, we dont require that from the FM)... supporting & siding is not ruled out... I know all this is part & partial of the game but if the FM wants to play let it atleast seem like he well played...

A billion $ sale...

2008-01-31T18:53:00.000+05:30

Provisional figure shows a sale of approx 1 billion Dollars (3938 cr), so how did our market end up with marginal losses when last week half the above sale made them tank 10% & more... unlike last few days even futures side they were net sellers of 300 cr net in stock & nifty futures together, only solace is our mutual funds about 2160 cr. volatile times indeed, well a break of today's bottom will point to the inevitable test of bottom, which will finally satisfy all Technical analysts... a test of the falling trendline point to 4850 region.

Since last 2 days the index heavies (RIL, ONGC, NTPC) have been nicely manipulating the indexes, during the upmove there was no sign of -ve news & now in the downmove no sign of +ve news, how the operators manipulate the media is amazing, even look at the company result in these recent times how so many companies come with lower than expected results only during correction & crashes. People are made to assume the best during upmoves & worst during the downmoves, upside figures of 25 to 30K were thrown easily & now 12/14K are doing the rounds.

My personal stratergy would be to buy 20/25% on every 5% downmove if finance permits, but do your own math & measure your own risk appetite, so Bon Appetite.

Foot Note: A billion dollar sale & the rupee ends stronger ??? I wonder if its not one of the infamous wrong figures, to create panic. Also Citibank subprime problems hit Mumbai, closes 8 ATMs to cut costs ;)

Mid Noon Post FED

2008-01-31T13:26:00.000+05:30

Well Monday's low of 5071 still protected by the bulls, after initial weakness Nifty has recovered has climbed back above the trendline showed yesterday, the 5150 has now shifted to 5185 which needs to be sustained today.

Asian markets mixed after fed but none showing major weakness, seems all in their process of making temp bottoms.

Damned if you do damned if you don't is the situation of USA, FED cut 50 basis points was supposed to be making the bulls happy, but now they think if fed is ready to cut so aggressively there must be something really wrong.

50 basis point cut, yipee

2008-01-31T00:52:00.000+05:30

US FED announces a 50 basis point cut, Gimme my IT Rally please, its overdue.... so the last minute heavy buying of Nifty futures was informed sources or gamblers ???? Dow up 97 points as of now, but its already rallied long way from bottom, so sell on news attitude ? maybe still 1:30 hours to go for the Dow to do its jig, may it rise in peace.

Also please note FII's today may have sold in cash 911 crs. but bought more than 1200 crs. of Nifty & Stock futures, same is the case in last few days, sell in cash but buying more in futures, so must be covering their shorts.

Update: Dow ended down -37 (Remember Dow rallied more than 1000 points from its lows) & Asian market not too impressed by the cut, lets see what our markets do especially today being settlement day. Break of 5150 may test 4850/4900 levels.

Living on the Edge...

2008-01-30T16:34:00.000+05:30

Nifty is living on the edge, waiting for the Fed biting its fingernails threatening to break down but still not letting go the bullish scene, the lower trendline is still intact but only just in the hourly chart above. A big move on either side will be coming in next 2 days.... but last 3/5 minutes of trade saw heavy buying in futures of Nifty Jan & Feb., so whether it was pofit booking of shorts or an indication is to be seen tomorrow.

5150 should hold...

2008-01-30T12:59:00.000+05:30

If 5150 on Nifty holds & 5250 is breached on upside, expect one way move to 5700/5800, but 5150 should not be breached... right now Nifty is 5195.

Everyone was expecting a test of the bottom made, but Nifty has other plans it seems, It gave a sideways move in the range making an ascending triangle pattern, lets see if it works out...

But if 5150 is breached we can be almost sure there will be no 50 basis point cut & bottom testing is in the cards...

Divergence in Nifty sensex

2008-01-29T19:24:00.000+05:30

Well like mentioned earlier 5400 level for nifty was crucial for it to continue the higher top higher bottoms formation, which dint & all were very disappointed concluding range-boundness. But wait a minute, look at Sensex, it coolly broke the Friday highs of 18406 & made a new high today of 18491. So our dear sensex has continued its bullish outlook from the bottom made, after a dip Nifty will join the party, as long as 17070 on sensex & 4995 on nifty are not broken.

Ok off the topic another thing annoying I find companies showing good profit, but somehow due to some operator manipulated analysis they show how the profit is below the expected profit & tank the stock, whereas Companies shown having losses lower than expected are made to hit the roof, come on after all does that make sense ? after all the end result is profits get thrashed & loss welcomed...

Range Bound Markets

2008-01-29T12:49:00.000+05:30

Till we break above 5400 Nifty we will remain range bound, 5400 being the Friday top, I believe we will breakout in next 48 hours and can buy some cheap feb call options, let media do their fancy word twisting & create hopes & then create scares, we wont buy their cheap talkers... but till the time we don't break out of 5400 no risky trades either side should be done, if we break out 5700 will immediately follow.

Well RBI gave nothing but then dint take anything either, so with SBI rights on status quo on...

On the funny side my blog got an hit from google search & guess what someone had searched for "loosing weight" so our market loosing weight is attracting lot of weight loss groups attention.

Banks resilient ?

2008-01-29T09:08:00.000+05:30

I hear everyone singing banks are resilient in this correction & each & every analyst coming on media singing the Banks resiliency song, but remember SBI rights is on, like how few days back it was Power on, now its banks on & Govt. is riding on this one... Today our credit policy, I believe some carrot will be given to keep the banks alive till the right issue.

Also as the power issue nears listing we see how the REL (Reliance Energy) stock coming back to life.

Markets stabilizing ...

2008-01-28T21:40:00.000+05:30

The market are stabilizing and making higher tops & higher bottoms: 4448 - 5203, 4995 - 5399, 5071 - ..... Now if we break Friday's high of 5399 we confirm the pattern. So don't believe / listen to those media channels proclaiming doom & dust.... I doubt their intentions are to help us retailers... rather they are for the big guys & against us meager mortals, so if you don't believe me atleast be very careful with your shorts.

20,000 in next week ?

2008-01-25T16:12:00.000+05:30

There's strong possibility that we could retrace the entire fall in the fall period it took to fall, i.e. 8 trading sessions. The Sensex weekly chart formed a hammer in the weekly chart which signifies a reversal pattern (Please note that the hammer can be white or black. As always, it is strongly recommended that with either candle, the short-term trader should wait for the next Candle for a confirmation candlestick that the share price is reversing direction), so I consider this weeks low as a bottom but need confirmation, also weekly chart has taken support at 50 RSI.

If it happens the retail public will be dumbstruck just waiting to enter in pullbacks....On the other hand any big correction has taken atleast 4 weeks to finish, looking at 26th may 2006 week a similar hammer was formed but correction continued 2 more weeks... so we should be on guard if in buy position have close stop losses.

something going on in IT, I expect some news to trigger a rally.

Also for a change today's provision figures show FII have stopped the selling & were net buyer both in cash & F&O.

Reliance IPO's bad luck ?

2008-01-24T18:28:00.000+05:30

Is it a coincidence / bad luck / planned move that everytime a Reliance IPO comes market crashes.

11.05.06 Reliance Petroleum (RPL) was listed which coincidently was the day the May 06 crash began, now 15.01.08 after the Ipo of Reliance power got fully subscribed, the crash began...

Very obvious that along with the operators the Ambani's held the market, till there IPO...

I am not saying that world market had nothing to do with it, but we corrected along with world in feb 07 & July 07, but the magnitude became excessive of the correction cause they were held on artificially for some time...

On the lighter side maybe the world sends all its funds to the ipo thus causing the crash...

Sensex looses 5874 points

2008-01-22T23:26:00.000+05:30

Sensex lost 5874 points from the top of 21206 made on 10.01.08 to 15332 today in just 8 trading sessions, in the History of Indian market this is a 1st, where is our dear finance minister who was worried of 1000 points rise in 10/15 days, today he is saying Indian economy is on track & Investors need not panic ???

Remember there are two gaps made on the downside which need to be filled sooner or later, 1st one is on 18930 & 2nd on 20203, the 1st gap will coincide with the fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% at 18980... So cheer up Bulls.

So they say FII's are selling causing the crash lets review last 2 days: yesterday FII sold 3300cr but M.funds mopped upto 3400crs still we landed deep in red, today FII sold 4265 cr in cash & M.funds bought 2778 crs but look at the Futures figures: FII today bought around 2825 cr nifty futures & around 5000 cr in stock futures, so hello, the blame game is not worth talking about.

FED is fed up....

2008-01-22T21:46:00.000+05:30

The USA FED is fed up with the constant pressure of the market which has arm twisted them to cut rates.

Fed cuts rate to 3.5% in 1st emergency session since 2001: The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate in an emergency move for the first time since 2001 by 75 basis points after stock markets tumbled from Hong Kong to London and the U.S. economy showed increasing signs that it's headed into a recession.

Close shave....

2008-01-22T21:20:00.000+05:30

Its was a very close shave with the long term trendline

+ve Divergences...

2008-01-22T15:35:00.000+05:30

There are +ve divergences in the hourly charts, any dips now or tomorrow can be used to buy...

today seemed a day when operators dint have anything to sell so opened market in lower circuit & started covering their shorts from there on.... worst seems to be over we completed 30% correction same as last MAy 06, there maybe downsides due to global markets but recovery is on its way, with the Dow futures down 550+ point since y'day today dow will see some major downside I guess but seems the world market have already given their respects to that, infact Europe market are in +ve territory today, though maybe just a bounce from oversold levels, Thank you LIC... I promise I will buy more of your policies...

LIC Being paged, LIC where art thou...

2008-01-22T10:11:00.000+05:30

Urgent call to LIC for buying in Indian markets & mainly for selling more mediclaim & insurance policies to Indian traders....

Yesterday it took 5.5 cr nifty trading to go 10% & today 10 lak trading of nifty futures to hit 10% circuit, manipulation total, no other word for it, look at the stock selection which hit 18/20 % downside, all major index stocks.

We are truly resilient, we don't need FII selling to bring down our markets, only our operator games are enough.

World markets continue to crash

2008-01-22T08:54:00.000+05:30

All Asian market down between 4 to 6.5 % today morning, any buying should be done only after some stability in the world markets, as they say don't catch a falling knife.

Mostly all markets have reached their Sept 07 levels or below, so we would need to be around 4500 nifty levels to be at par.

20,200 target....

2008-01-21T22:15:00.000+05:30

Those stuck in their positions or get to buy in this fall should aim for sensex target 20,200. The gap there will be filled sooner or later thus atleast giving a bounce till there which means around 2600 point from present close of 17605.

So if markets gap down tomorrow, it might be worthwhile to buy delivery basis & forget them, till 20,200.

IT stocks showing accumulation & also textile stocks & Auto Machinery sector, maybe some sops in the budget for them, personally am picking those.

5100 achieved as predicted in Dec.

2008-01-21T20:58:00.000+05:30

Well target of 5100 for nifty achieved & broken... atleast it held on closing basis. Pain not over yet, a bounce though should happen any time, testing 4650 the previous top may be possible, all depends on the world market though...

Strange how the indexes were not allowed to hit circuit of 10% before 14:30 & fell through afterward, seems like someone purposely did that because after 14:30 the circuits go to 15%.

Another thing, FII sold 3300cr in cash & M.funds bought 3400cr, FII's were sellers in Nifty but bought equivalent amounts in stocks futures, so who sold is a mystery .

Some posts carried forward from MMB Blog...

2008-01-19T12:59:00.001+05:30

Following are my post on MMB Blog (BearCartel)

Resons for bearishness as posted earlier: Posted by: BearCartel on (13-Dec-07 19:46 ) I feel a significant correction is around the corner too many coincidences with last May... Metals crashed significantly, World markets toppish, though possibility of Dow making an inverted Head & shoulder, Usually I follow London FTSE because if you check charts any significant correction worldwide will begin from FTSE & spread later everywhere, Also like last may Oil at all time high & now falling, ACC & satyam which are operators favorite are not moving & slowly going downwards... MTNL & pharma usually the last to move in a rally have started moving, many other factors which I cant remember now have made me come to selling off... so I think a significant correction is due.

one more thing if you notice before any big correction there comes 2 wave of corrections like we fell from 12K to 11K 2 times & then topped at 12671 now we fell from 19k to 17k & 20k to 18K though it was different cause we fell twice this time from 20k so I got a bit confused... thats a signal for me to sell out, don't know what its called maybe significant to Elliot theory but I know zilch about Elliot so wont know...

reasons for future bullishness as a layman viewing general operator traits:

late Jan / early feb few mega issues in the pipeline like REL power / SBI blah blah / Rumour of RIL Retail possible & few more & other reason a handsome no. of SOP would be ther in budget & rumour of Tax cuts etc since elections around the corner... Usually the IPOs & the budget rally will coincide so as stated above I have sold out & will re-enter in Mid Jan, so caution is highly advice, if the world markets permit we should test 5880 tomorrow, after that looks bearish, your views comments welcome...

26.12.07: Well Mutual Funds Quarterly NAV last day 31.12.07 & Expiry on 27.12.07, seldom are the market allowed to fall under above circumstances.... so any downside will be in Jan.... The Weekly charts of Nifty & RIL showing heavy -ve divergence, so is the MACD, Caution is advised, target may come & go...Rarely has the Macd slow line cut above the fast line in the weekly charts & got away without a significant correction, I do expect 5100/5150 within next month

Govt allows this & that , blah blah to invest in the Stock market, hmm...sounds very familiar, old players may have heard this line several times before, usually I believe its for the retail investors to believe that lot of money is on its way so no worries, but experienced guys know, its a signal of incoming...

03.01.07: As expected in the reasons for bullishness given above... any correction due is postponed to after the mega REL Power IPO, operators at their best... Enjoy till IPO ends...

16.1.08: Well Nifty Futures had a gap at 5830 which got beautifully covered today, Seeing the Overall bearish mood & still a few big time issues lined up am bullish on the market, think till budget may carry on... Seeing the shorts being built up here & in the dow, looks like the fed is gonna +vely surprise....

17.1.08: THe trend line from Oct till now has been breached on the lower side, looks like the bearish scenario which I explained will after all play out, too bad though it proves technicals work more than other factors... wish I had listened to its logic, well never too late. Though if there's a immediate upside still there's a slim chance, another thing a gap in sensex at 20,200 is made looks like a bearish breakout, but sooner or later it will be covered....

18.1.08: Shorters beware of hugh pullbacks, wolfe wave seems active target 5450...

1st post - Say hello to God...

2008-01-19T12:55:00.000+05:30

Jai Shri Krishna

Ohm Shri Ganeshaay Namah

Regards,
Baron

Show Me The Money ®